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.Are we missing an all-important card in the budget?
All of the parties involved – government, opposition and Greens – say the budget is about maintaining the status quo. That’s true, but only on the surface.
It is a well-known fact that while we’re talking about it, the government has had a little less money to spend than it needs to.
The government’s planning assumptions – as agreed with the Oireachtas – leave it with only about $1.7 billion in budget adjustment money in 2017. This is a welcome return to reality.
However, the government’s figures don’t account for two major expenditure areas that are covered by grants, not by budget adjustments.
First is the cost of replacing Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael office workers who will leave, in some cases, as early as 2017. The parliamentary areas will be vacated in the course of this year and in 2017 and office allowances will be discontinued.
The public service pay negotiations in 2017 will be the last significant pay and conditions settlement for this cohort. While it’s a good idea to have a pay and conditions package ready before the departure of this cohort of workers, the nature of the negotiations will be very different in 2017.
Then there’s the day-to-day costs of office services – and these are estimated at $70 million a year.
The government has allowed for this through a change to the social welfare cost allowance for 2017, which will double the social welfare cost allowance for the average working family.
There will also be changes to the public service pay scale for 2017. This will include a cap on the differential between the private and public sector pay scales.
The second major area of expenditure is the planned spend on the special investment programme, to be known as Smart State, with an estimated $4.2 billion budget requirement in 2017.
The original estimate of this expenditure was $3.8 billion.
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